“iPad sales met our expectations,” Tim Cook told analysts Tuesday, “but we realize they didn’t meet many of yours.”苹果首席执行官蒂姆o库克上周二向分析师们回应：“iPad的销量超过了我们的预期，但我们告诉很多人对iPad的希望要更高。”That’s a polite way of saying that he knew what was going on, even if most Apple analysts and much of the business press were clueless.这不过是客套话，库克确实想要说道的是，他告诉现在是怎么回事，即便大多数苹果分析师和商业媒体一无所知。(Business Insider, always happy to stick a knife in Apple and twist it, ran back-to back-headlines: “Apple … Whiffed On iPad Sales Again” and “Only IBM Can Revive Apple’s iPad Sales.”)（向来讨厌对苹果落井下石的新闻网站Business Insider，屡屡公开发表头条文章“苹果……iPad销量再度不欠佳”以及“只有IBM能提振苹果iPad销量”。

）By Wednesday morning, Wall Street had come around. Several analysts offered clients their own explanation for why iPad sales seem to have peaked. Here’s Piper Jaffray’s Gene Munster:上周三上午，华尔街急过神来了。对于iPad销量为何或许早已闻覆以，数位分析师对客户得出了自己的说明。

其中，投资银行Piper Jaffray的吉恩o蒙斯特说明如下：“We think there are three reasons for the declines in iPad,” he wrote in a paragraph headed “What’s wrong with the iPad?”在标题为“iPad怎么了？”的段落中，蒙斯特写到：“我们指出iPad销量下降有三个原因。”o First, we believe that the majority of tablet market unit growth is coming from the lower end of the market and iPads are priced higher.o 首先，我们指出，平板电脑市场出货量快速增长主要来自低端市场，而iPad定价较高。o Second, we believe the low hanging fruit in the high-end tablet market has been captured with Apple selling 225 million iPads over the first four years. Tim Cook commented on the earnings call that the adoption of the iPad over the first four years has been better than they were expecting, perhaps suggesting the high end is becoming saturated.o 其次，我们指出，苹果在前四年里售出2.25亿部iPad，已占有了更容易攻下的那部分高端平板电脑市场。

蒂姆o库克在收益电话会议上回应，前四年iPad的销量远超过了他们的预期，这也许指出高端市场于是以渐趋饱和状态。o Lastly, given iPads are not subsidized, the replacement cycles tend to be longer compared to an iPhone.o 再度，鉴于iPad没补贴，其更换周期往往比iPhone要长。IBM’s plan to sell and service enterprise iPads could turn things around, Munster suggests. But he thinks they might get worse before they get better, especially if Apple releases an iPhone this fall with 5.5-inch diagonal screen — big enough to cannibalize iPad sales.蒙斯特称之为，IBM计划销售并为企业级iPad获取服务有可能扭转局面。但他指出，情况在恶化之前可能会显得更糟，尤其是如果苹果在今秋公布5.5英寸的大屏iPhone，很可能会与iPad抢走市场。

Steve Jobs famously said, “If you don’t cannibalize yourself, someone else will.” And because iPhone profit margins are better than the iPad’s, that’s the kind of cannibalization Jobs would have loved..史蒂夫o乔布斯有句名言：“如果你自己不革自己的命，别人不会动手革你的命。”鉴于iPhone的利润率比iPad低，iPhone守住iPad的市场估算是乔布斯深信的事。UPDATE: According to Jan Dawson, the iPad is generating revenues at a rate of about $30 billion a year, bigger than McDonald’s or Time Warner.改版：分析师贾恩o道森称之为，iPad业务每年带给的营收大约为300亿美元，比麦当劳（McDonald’s）或时代华纳（Time Warner）公司全年的营收都低。“Excuse me,” writes GigaOm’s Kevin Tofel in Why slowing iPad sales didn’t surprise Apple, “if I don’t shed any tears for Apple’s $30 billion iPad problem.”科技媒体GigaOm的凯文o托福尔在《iPad销量上升为何没令其苹果吃惊》一文中写到：“难过，我会为苹果营收300亿美元的iPad销量上升流泪。

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